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Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics»
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Геронтология и гериатрия

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF CLINICAL RISK FACTORS FOR CKD PROGRESSION IN ELDERLY PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES

N.A. Pervyshin1, S.V. Bulgakova1, A.A. Chertischeva2, D.P. Kurmaev1, E.V. Treneva1, P.I. Romanchuk3, A.A. Medzinovskaya4
1. Samara State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Samara
2. Samara Regional Clinical Hospital named after V.D. Seredavina
3. Samara Regional Clinical Geriatric Hospital, Samara
4. Research Medical Centre «GERONTOLOGY», Moscow
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Summary:
Introduction. The global trend of aging of the population entails an increase in the prevalence of age-related diseases. An equally urgent and socially significant problem is the exponential increase in the number of people suffering from diabetes mellitus (DM). The identification of diagnostically significant predictors of a high rate of GFR reduction in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes makes it possible to objectively assess the risk and prescribe nephroprotective drugs in a timely manner. Objective: to identify and evaluate clinical status factors that influence the dynamics of CKD progression in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Material and methods. A single-stage observational study of clinical status indicators was conducted in a population sample of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes. The process of primary data collection is automated using the AWPE 2.0 program. 118 consultation protocols of elderly patients with type 2 diabetes were selected according to the compliance criteria, including 69 clinical indicators available in outpatient settings. Statistical analysis was performed using specialized software SPSS 25.0 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, New York, USA). When evaluating the results, various methods of descriptive statistics were used for qualitative and quantitative indicators, as well as the original calculated parameter "glomerular filtration rate reduction index" (RI_GFR) to assess the rate of progression of CKD. Results: at the first stage of the study, correlations were determined between qualitative and quantitative indicators of clinical status and RI_GFR in the general sample. Next, parallel groups of different levels of RI_GFR with a threshold value of the parameter separation of 3.83 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year (the upper quartile of the distribution) were identified, in which the significance of differences in clinical status indicators, including the effect of prescribing medications of different groups, was determined. Factors significantly correlated with a high rate of GFR reduction in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes were identified, which were studied by binary logistic regression, which allows determining the measure of the influence of diagnostically significant predictors on the rate of progression of CKD. Conclusions: the use of the original diagnostic parameter RI_GFR to study the progression of CKD in old age makes it possible to expand clinical understanding of the pathogenetic mechanisms of complication development; the revealed predictors of a high rate of GFR reduction can be considered as prognostic criteria for renal dysfunction and allow us to hypothesize the priority role of hemodynamic factors in the development of this complication, especially in the late stages.
Keywords diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, regression logistic analysis.

Bibliographic reference:
N.A. Pervyshin, S.V. Bulgakova, A.A. Chertischeva, D.P. Kurmaev, E.V. Treneva, P.I. Romanchuk, A.A. Medzinovskaya, REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF CLINICAL RISK FACTORS FOR CKD PROGRESSION IN ELDERLY PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2024. - №1;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1233 (date of access: 16.05.2024).

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