Научно-практический рецензируемый журнал
"Современные проблемы здравоохранения
и медицинской статистики"
Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics»

Диагностика и профилактика преждевременного старения

Фтизиатрия

SEASON FACTORS IN NOTIFICATION TUBERCULOSIS CASES AND MORTALITY OF TUBERCULOSIS IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Sterlikov S.A.1,2, Kucherjavaja D.A.1, Rusakova L.I.2, Kazykina T.N.1
1. Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow
2. Central TB Research Institute, Moscow
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Summary:
Background. The problem of seasonal features of the frequency of notification of cases of diseases and, in particular, tuberculosis, attracted the attention of both domestic and foreign researchers. However, the study of the influence of seasonal factors on the notification of tuberculosis cases and mortality from tuberculosis in the Russian Federation was carried out on small samples. Materials and methods. The data of monthly statistical observations concerning the notification of tuberculosis cases and tuberculosis mortality in 2012–2018 were studied (74,537 deaths from tuberculosis and 445,158 new cases of tuberculosis in adults). Analyzed the proportion of patients with tuberculosis adults identified during each month of the year, as well as seasonal changes in the rate of detection of tuberculosis during screening fluorography examinations. Результаты и обсуждение. Подтверждается гипотеза о влиянии сезонных факторов на число умерших от туберкулёза с максимальным его значением в весенне-летний период и его смещением по мере нарастания континентальности климата с весеннего на летний период. The difference in mortality between the minimum in February (7.3%) and the maximum in March (9.2%) is 27.2%. The largest number of newly diagnosed patients with smear-positive tuberculosis is noted in April (9.4%), and the minimum - in September (7.6%); the differences between them are 22.0%. Such seasonality is typical for most climatic zones of the Russian Federation. Similar seasonal dynamics are characteristic of the notification of all new cases of tuberculosis for the first time. The highest indicator of detectability of tuberculosis during screening falls on January-February (0.6 per 1000), which may correspond to subclinical forms of tuberculosis, which are detected during active screening, and in the following months not revealed during screening patients show clinical manifestations and are revealed during treatment with symptoms of tuberculosis. The minimal effectiveness of tuberculosis screening is observed in September (0.4% per 1000). The seasonality of the detection rate does not correspond to the coverage of the population with tuberculosis screening, the maximum of which is in September (9.8%) and December (11.0%), and the minimum in January-February (5.5–6.9%). Conclusion. Seasonal differences in mortality are not sufficient to take them into account when making decisions. Seasonal differences in the notification of tuberculosis cases can be used when planning curator visits for identifying patients with a smear-positive (optimal month is January) and planning preventive examinations for tuberculosis, which should be maximal in January-February.
Keywords notification of tuberculosis cases, tuberculosis incidence, tuberculosis mortality, seasonal factors, tuberculosis seasonality, screening for detection of tuberculosis.

Bibliographic reference:
Sterlikov S.A., Kucherjavaja D.A., Rusakova L.I., Kazykina T.N., SEASON FACTORS IN NOTIFICATION TUBERCULOSIS CASES AND MORTALITY OF TUBERCULOSIS IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2019. - №2;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=242 (date of access: 18.10.2019).

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