Relevance. The paper presents the materials of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of long-term dynamics of general morbidity and morbidity with bronchopulmonary pathology with temporary disability during the development and implementation of a set of health-improving preventive measures. An in-depth study of public health based on system analysis, which allows substantiating effective and economically viable management decisions on primary and secondary prevention of morbidity with temporary disability, is of scientific and practical interest. Materials and methods. The analysis was carried out based on official departmental reporting on temporary disability of flax mill workers in the form of temporary disability for the period from 2010 to 2023. Calculations of long-term trends and short-term forecasting were carried out using exponential smoothing with a damped trend. Results and discussion. The nonlinear nature of long-term trends was established. Periods of initial increase, subsequent decrease and stabilization of morbidity levels at low levels were identified. Conclusions. Long-term dynamics of morbidity registered against the background of the complex of health-improving preventive measures are non-linear. In the case of effective functioning of the prevention system, long-term trends in morbidity can be characterized by periods of some increase in the level at the beginning, a steady decrease and stabilization at relatively minimal values.