Организация фармацевтического дела
PREDICTING THE NEED FOR MEDICINES FOR THE TREATMENT OF CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA
A.V. Zhuravlev1, O. I. Knysh1, I.A. Zarubina1
1. Tyumen State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Tyumen
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Summary:
Introduction. In recent years, the number of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has increased in the Russian Federation (RF) and Tyumen Oblast (TO). CML is a clonal myeloproliferative neoplasm caused by malignant transformation of hematopoietic stem cells associated with chromosome translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11), resulting in the formation of a chimeric gene BCR::ABL1. Drug provision for this group of patients is quite expensive and is carried out in accordance with state programs of preferential drug provision (PLP). Procurement of drugs (DP), including for pharmacotherapy of patients with CML, is carried out on the basis of a unified information system (UIS). The study of electronic auction data will allow us to analyze the financial costs of purchasing drugs from the group of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with the international nonproprietary name (INN) Imatinib and to forecast the volumes of purchases and costs for the future period.
The purpose of the study calculates the forecast of the volume of purchases of drugs for the treatment of patients with CML and the financial costs of their acquisition in the territorial division.
Materials and methods of the study. We used consolidated data on the dispensing of drugs for the period from 2017 to 2023 of JSC Pharmacia, data from the unified information system in the field of procurement "Goszakupki", as well as information from the scientific literature. Analytical, statistical, mathematical, graphical, content analysis method, computer technologies and forecasting methods, such as the extrapolation method and the normative method, were used.
Results. To calculate the forecast of financial costs for the purchase of drugs from the group of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with the international nonproprietary name (INN) Imatinib, used for the pharmacotherapy of patients with CML, we analyzed information on the purchase of these drugs. The main customers were: the Tyumen Region Department of Health (TRDH) and the State Autonomous Healthcare Institution of the Tyumen Region “Multidisciplinary Clinical Medical Center “Medical City” (GAHIT TY “MKMC “Medical City”). For the period from 2018 to 2024, the TRDH has 18 completed contracts for the purchase of Imatinib. GAHIT TY “MKMC “Medical City” owns 4 completed contracts for this period. The main manufacturers are Russian and Indian pharmaceutical companies. The analysis revealed differences in the range of ordered drugs: tablets and capsules in dosages of 100 mg and 400 mg, No. 30 and 120. The volumes of deliveries were calculated in pieces and packages. The number of ordered packages varied from 270 to 1372 packages per year, and the number of tablets from 17250 to 42160 pcs. The unit price was calculated as the price of one tablet and ranged from 6.78 to 150 rubles. We conducted an analysis and identified the dynamics of changes in the total contract value and the total cost of purchases. When reviewing the results of electronic auctions, suppliers who participated in the purchases were noted. When drawing up the forecast, various forecasting methods were considered and applied.
Conclusions. Forecasting of purchases is an integral part of organizing preferential drug provision for patients with CML TO, it allows you to competently distribute financial resources and calculate risks, which is quite relevant today and requires further research. We have made forecasts of financial costs for the acquisition of the INN Imatinib drug and purchase volumes for 3 years (2024-2026) for the Tyumen region.
Keywords tyrosine kinase inhibitors, imatinib, forecasting, government programs, preferential drug provision
Bibliographic reference:
A.V. Zhuravlev, O. I. Knysh, I.A. Zarubina, PREDICTING THE NEED FOR MEDICINES FOR THE TREATMENT OF CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2025. - №1;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1520 (date of access: 01.04.2025).
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1520 (date of access: 01.04.2025).
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