Организация здравоохранения
DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF THE PREVALENCE OF MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASES AMONG THE POPULATION
Fedorova Yu.V.,1, Son I.M.,1,2, Medvedeva O.V.,2, Menshikova L.I.,2, Suslin S.A.2,3
1. The Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow
2. National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow
3. Samara State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Samara
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Summary:
Introduction. Modifiable disease risk factors include conditions, behavioral patterns, and external circumstances that can be changed by lifestyle improvements, informed decisions, and medical programs. The main modifiable factors are largely related to lifestyle. Modern research in this field is aimed at the prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases using comprehensive measures, including lifestyle changes, drug treatment and health monitoring.
Purpose: to study the dynamics and structure of the prevalence of modifiable risk factors for the development of diseases among the Russian population in the context of federal districts.
Materials and methods. The results of medical examinations of certain groups of the adult population and preventive medical examinations in the federal districts of the country for 2021-2024 were studied according to the data of the Federal Statistical Observation reporting form No. 131/o "Information on preventive medical examinations and medical examinations of certain groups of the adult population". The prevalence of modifiable risk factors (per 100 adults), its average value, the value of the growth rate, and the average annual increase (%) were calculated. Using the exponential smoothing method, a short-term forecast of the dynamics of the prevalence of risk factors in 2025-2028 was built with the calculation of the confidence interval (CI) and the determination of the degree of forecast quality (MASE). The structure of the main modifiable risk factors was also calculated.
Results and discussion. The national prevalence of modifiable risk factors increased from 49.31 to 58.58 per 100 adults, with an annual average of 56.54 and an increase rate of +18.8%. The average annual increase (+5.9%) is relatively small, which indicates a slight slowdown in the process.: The maximum level was recorded in 2023 (64.5 per 100 adults), followed by a decrease in 2024 (by 9.18% compared to 2023). The highest prevalence rate was recorded in the Siberian Federal District (62.05 per 100 adults in 2021 and 65.37 per 100 adults in 2024). Consistently high prevalence levels of risk factors are also observed in the Central Federal District (61.13) and the Far Eastern Federal District (58.16 per 100 adult population). The lowest coefficients are registered in the North Caucasus Federal District (from 17.04 per 100 adults in 2021 to 42.05 per 100 adults in 2024). According to the forecast results, in 2025-2028, the Central Federal District, the North Caucasus Federal District, the Volga Federal District, the Far Eastern Federal District and the Central Federal District will have a pronounced and moderate increase in the indicator, while the Siberian Federal District, the Southern Federal District and the Northwestern Federal District will be characterized by stagnation or decrease in the indicator. Overall, poor nutrition dominated the structure of modifiable risk factors in the Russian Federation (44.17%). The second most important contribution was made by low physical activity (36.04%) with an upward trend. Tobacco smoking is in third place (from 16.77% to 19.26%, with an average of 18.13%), with a downward trend in the overall structure. The risks associated with alcohol consumption (on average 1.57%) and narcotic drugs (on average 0.09%) make the least contribution to the structure of modifiable risk factors in the Russian Federation.
Conclusion. In most federal districts of the country, there has been a significant increase in the number of modifiable risk factors among adults who have undergone medical examinations and preventive medical examinations. This phenomenon may be due to both a real increase in the prevalence of these factors and an improvement in their detectability within the framework of these measures. In 2025-2028, it is expected to deepen the differentiation of federal districts in terms of the prevalence of modifiable risk factors among the adult population. In the dynamics of 2021-2024, there is a change in the structure of modifiable risk factors. The proportion of poor nutrition remains significant, while smoking continues to decline. However, the contribution of low physical activity is increasing in almost all federal districts. At the same time, physical inactivity retains the status of the second most important risk factor among the population that has undergone medical examinations and preventive medical examinations.
Keywords modifiable risk factors, prevalence, dynamics, prognosis, public health, federal districts
Bibliographic reference:
Fedorova Yu.V.,, Son I.M.,, Medvedeva O.V.,, Menshikova L.I.,, Suslin S.A., DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF THE PREVALENCE OF MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASES AMONG THE POPULATION // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2026. - №2;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1913 (date of access: 23.10.2026).
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1913 (date of access: 23.10.2026).
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