Aim. Study the proposed impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis incidence. Materials and methods. A “soft model” of the effect of the infection caused by COVID-19 and the associated anti-epidemic measures on the dynamics of the incidence of tuberculosis has been developed. Based on a study of the official statistics of the Russian Federation for 2019, subgroups of patients with tuberculosis were identified depending on their departmental affiliation, social status, age, and characteristics of the disease. Using the method of SWOT analysis using applied system analysis methods, the factors influencing the implementation of anti-TB measures and the dynamics of the incidence of tuberculosis in each of the selected groups were determined. Results. A significant change in the dynamics of the incidence of tuberculosis in prisons is not expected. In children, the incidence rate will continue to decline, but an increase in the number of residual changes that were first detected after tuberculosis should be expected. A decrease in tuberculosis in foreigners is expected. It is highly likely that there will be an increase in the number of relapses of tuberculosis, as well as cases of tuberculosis in people living with HIV. Possible increase in post-mortem tuberculosis cases. Using weight coefficients, the contribution of the dynamics of each of the subgroups to the incidence of tuberculosis is taken into account. Conclusion. Most of the effects associated with the spread of COVID-19 in the short term will help to reduce the reported number of cases of tuberculosis (first diagnosed and relapse) while accumulating the expected (latent) incidence, which will occur in the long term if no additional measures to limit the spread of tuberculosis infection.