Introduction. The transformation of the problem of studying the morbidity of the population of the Voronezh region with circulatory diseases into an actual state corresponding to the modern conditions of the functioning of the regional health care system is associated not only with the dominance of this class of diseases in the structure of causes of death, but also with a high level of morbidity of the population. As an integral part of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation, the region, as a whole, obeys all-Russian laws in terms of the incidence and prevalence of circulatory diseases, while having its own characteristics and specific features. Mathematical forecasting models, the use of which makes it possible to find the dependence of the future value of the incidence, on its past value, within the very process of the formation of the level of incidence of the population of the region, allow us to build a medium-term forecast on this dependence. Purpose of the investigation. Middle-term forecast of the incidence of circulatory diseases based on the analysis of regional features of the dynamics of the incidence of the population in the Voronezh region. Materials and methods. The article uses methods of description and comparison, a logical method, a formalized forecasting method. Results and discussion. The features of the formation of the dynamics of the morbidity of the population of the Voronezh region with circulatory diseases from 2010 to 2019 were revealed: prevalence rate increased by 48,9%; incidence is characterized by a high growth rate, exceeding the national average by 1,9 times; the trend in the morbidity of hypertensive disease is unstable for prevalence and incidence; long-standing dynamics of CAD is characterized by negative trends associated with an increase in prevalence and incidence. Conclusion. The middle-term forecast of the incidence of circulatory diseases in the region, based on the analysis of time series models, shows a promising increase in the general and primary incidence of CDS in the Voronezh region, the general and primary incidence of hypertensive diseases and CAD.