Научно-практический рецензируемый журнал
"Современные проблемы здравоохранения
и медицинской статистики"
Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics»
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Диагностика и профилактика преждевременного старения

Геронтология и гериатрия

DIAGNOSTIC VALUE OF INFLAMMATORY FACTORS IN ELDERLY AND SENILE INDIVIDUALS DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19: ROC ANALYSIS

A.V. Voeikova1,2, A.M. Ivanov3, A.S. Pushkin1,2, U.R. Saginbaev1,2, D.P. Piskunov1,2, Ye.E. Veys4
1. St. Petersburg Institute of Bioregulation and Gerontology, St. Petersburg
2. St. Petersburg City Multidisciplinary Hospital No. 2, St. Petersburg
3. S.M. Kirov Military Medical Academy, St. Petersburg
4. Research Medical Centre «GERONTOLOGY», Moscow
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Summary:
Introduction. During epidemics, ways are required to quickly and accurately diagnose and assess the condition of patients, correctly chosen treatment tactics and predict the course of the disease, which is especially relevant among people over 60 years of age. The most promising area for study is analytes on the one hand related to the state of the cardiovascular system, on the other – an inflammatory response. The purpose of the study: to evaluate the diagnostic effectiveness of inflammation factors in peripheral blood in elderly and senile patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using ROC analysis. Materials and methods: 165 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were included in the study. Two groups were formed: 1st – face of 60-74 age; 2nd – patients of 70-89 age. Results. A prognostic model was developed based on regression analysis. Cut-off thresholds were calculated using ROC analysis: –for the elderly 0.097; for the senile - 0.157. – the p value, above which the risk of an unfavorable outcome increases. Discussion. The identified data showed a high prognostic significance of the studied indicators. In particular, a relationship was found between high levels of interleukin-6 and procalcitonin and the severe course of COVID-19 in older people. Proinflammatory cytokine imbalance promotes the deployment of pathological processes at the subcellular and molecular level. Conclusion. The study showed the high value of analyzing the levels of IL-6 and procalcitonin in predicting the outcome of COVID-19 in older people.
Keywords ROC analysis, elderly age. COVID-19, inflammatory factors

Bibliographic reference:
A.V. Voeikova, A.M. Ivanov, A.S. Pushkin, U.R. Saginbaev, D.P. Piskunov, Ye.E. Veys, DIAGNOSTIC VALUE OF INFLAMMATORY FACTORS IN ELDERLY AND SENILE INDIVIDUALS DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19: ROC ANALYSIS // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2023. - №1;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=972 (date of access: 20.04.2024).

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