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Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics»
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QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL OF MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE REGION: ANALYSIS, TRENDS, FORECAST

A.А. Soshkin1
1. Ryazan State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Ryazan, Russia
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Summary:
Introduction. Staffing of the management system is a complex and multifaceted process aimed at determining the optimal number and skill level of employees necessary for the effective functioning of medical organizations. In this regard, it becomes relevant to conduct a modular study aimed at studying the quantitative characteristics of senior personnel in medical organizations in the region. The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the number of heads of medical organizations and their deputies, as well as the assessment of staffing of medical organizations with qualified management personnel. Purpose of the investigation. Analysis of quantitative characteristics of regional health managerial personnel to assess trends and forecast the situation. Materials and methods. The study was conducted on the territory of the Ryazan region from 2018 to 2023, was continuous in nature, the development included chief doctors and deputy chief doctors of medical organizations of the state health system subordinate to the regional Ministry of Health. General scientific methods (comparative analysis, synthesis and induction) and special methods (longitudinal and structured observation) were used in the study. The exponential smoothing method was used to build short-term forecast models. Results and discussion. A decrease in the number of chief physicians and their deputies in Ryazan (-2,6%) and municipal districts (-12,5%) was revealed due to the optimization of the staffing table in connection with the restructuring of the network of medical organizations. In 2023, there were 7,6% fewer managers in medical organizations than provided for in the staffing table. The dynamics of the number of managerial personnel in Ryazan and the municipal districts of the Ryazan region is negative and stable (R2=0,7681; 0,7929, respectively). In 2023, the staffing of managers and their deputies in medical institutions in the region is 2,75% less than in 2018, but the trend is not stable (R2=0,1153). The dynamics of staffing of medical institutions in Ryazan is unclear, there is a slight increase in the coefficient and a low relative growth rate, while in medical organizations in rural municipalities the decrease is more pronounced (the base loss rate is 12,04%). The short-term forecast of staffing of medical organizations in the region with managerial personnel, taking into account the staffing and occupied positions, for 2027 shows a decrease in this indicator by 8,9%. A significant increase in the turnover rate of the studied category of specialists was found (from 7,2% to 26,4%) in the region as a whole. The forecast based on the additive model assumes an increase in the cumulative staff turnover rate, on average in the region, to 38,34% by 2027. Conclusion. In 2023, in the medical institutions of the Ryazan region, there is a discrepancy between the number of full-time management positions and the number of staff, especially in municipalities, a shortage of managers at both levels is typical for medical organizations providing medical care both in outpatient and inpatient settings. Over the past six years, there has been a tendency to decrease the number of heads of medical organizations, especially in municipal medical organizations, and a high level of staff turnover.
Keywords Heads of medical organizations, quantitative characteristics of the staff, trends, shot-range prognosis

Bibliographic reference:
A.А. Soshkin, QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL OF MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE REGION: ANALYSIS, TRENDS, FORECAST // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2024. - №5;
URL: http://healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1511 (date of access: 28.12.2024).

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